Surviving the Uncertainty: Refugees in Lebanon Brace for Looming Conflict

Lebanon, a country already grappling with economic turmoil and political instability, now faces the imminent threat of war as tensions escalate between Hezbollah and Israel. For refugees like Alaa, a Syrian who fled to Lebanon after his home was destroyed in Aleppo, the looming conflict brings back painful memories and ignites new fears. Alaa, now a hairdresser in Beirut, knows that if war breaks out, it will affect everyone — Lebanese and Syrians alike. “If it happens, it happens,” he told Al Jazeera, expressing a sentiment of resignation shared by many refugees who live day by day, uncertain of what the future holds.

Lebanon has long been a refuge for millions of people fleeing war-torn regions, but the situation is far from ideal. The country’s fragile state makes it a precarious haven, and as the threat of war looms closer, refugees are left wondering how they will survive another conflict. Many refugees fear that their chances of finding safety are far lower than those of Lebanese nationals or migrant workers from other countries.

Alaa’s story is just one of many. When asked what he would do if war erupted, Alaa said he would try to escape to the mountains where his parents live, rather than returning to Syria, where conflict still rages. “I wouldn’t return to Syria if a big war happened here,” he said, highlighting the difficult choices refugees face when caught between two dangerous options.

The regional tension reached new heights following the assassination of senior Hezbollah commander Fuad Shakr in Beirut and Hamas’s political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. These events, widely attributed to Israel, have cast a dark shadow over Lebanon, heightening fears among the country’s inhabitants, including Syrian and Sudanese refugees.

Bakhri Yousef, a 28-year-old Sudanese cleaner who sends money home to his family in Sudan, also feels the weight of these tensions. For Bakhri, the situation is dire. He stays in Lebanon to support his family, but if the conflict escalates, he would rather return to Sudan, where he can rely on his family for support. “Here in Lebanon, I have nobody to rely on. But in Sudan, I can rely on my family and they can rely on me,” he explained.

For many Syrians, returning home is not an option, even if Lebanon descends into chaos. They fear being conscripted into the Syrian army or facing persecution by the Assad regime. Mohammad, a 33-year-old who owns a laundromat in Beirut, is one of those refugees who would rather stay and fight in Lebanon than return to Syria. “If Israel invades, many Syrians in Lebanon would pick up arms and fight against them,” Mohammad said, pointing out that the shared threat from Israel could unite Lebanese and Syrians against a common enemy.

However, Lebanon is not a sustainable option for many refugees. As the threat of war grows, some are seeking a way out, trying to reach Europe via Syria and Turkey. Mohammad noted that many Syrians have already returned to Syria in hopes of making it to Europe, despite the dangers involved in such journeys.

The situation is equally bleak for Sudanese refugees like Sayed Ibrahim Ahmad, who fears being trapped in Lebanon if the conflict intensifies. Unlike Lebanese nationals, who might escape to Syria or Jordan, refugees like Ahmad have few options for fleeing the country. He sees no safe way out, fearing that those who try to reach Europe often end up back in Lebanon or, worse, lose their lives in the process. “Whether in Lebanon or Sudan, I’ll be trapped in a war,” Ahmad lamented, expressing his wish to die in his homeland rather than in a foreign country far from his family.

As Lebanon teeters on the brink of war, refugees and migrants are left with no good choices, only the hope of surviving yet another conflict. Their stories highlight the resilience and despair of those who have already endured unimaginable hardships and now face the prospect of enduring even more.