Syria’s Crossroads: Over 1 Million Return Home Amid Post-Assad Uncertainty

A Nation in Transition

Syria stands at a turning point as more than 1.2 million displaced citizens have returned home since the ouster of former President Bashar al-Assad in December. According to the UN Humanitarian Coordinator, this number includes 885,000 internally displaced persons (IDPs) and 302,000 refugees, marking a significant shift in the country’s post-war trajectory. However, the challenges ahead are daunting. While many Syrians are hopeful for a fresh start after 14 years of brutal conflict, the reality on the ground remains precarious. The returnees face destroyed homes, economic collapse, and a humanitarian crisis that continues to worsen despite the change in leadership.

The Struggle for a Safe Return

The majority of those returning are coming from Lebanon, Türkiye, and Iraq, according to the International Organization for Migration (IOM). However, for many, their return does not signify an end to hardship. More than a quarter of those resettling in their places of origin are now residing in damaged or unfinished buildings, reflecting the dire state of Syria’s infrastructure. The previous Assad regime had long promoted the idea of a “safe return” for refugees, but in reality, those who returned under his rule often faced arrest, forced conscription, or other forms of persecution. The post-Assad era brings new hope, yet uncertainty remains about the security and stability of the nation’s displaced populations.

Humanitarian Aid Falling Short

The UN predicts that as many as 3.5 million refugees and IDPs could return to Syria this year, but the humanitarian response has been critically underfunded. As of mid-March, the UN-coordinated aid plan for Syria, totaling $1.25 billion (€1.15bn), was only 12.5% funded. Essential sectors such as shelter, water, sanitation, and agriculture are suffering from severe resource shortages, leaving returnees vulnerable to extreme poverty and deprivation. The UN Humanitarian Coordinator for Syria, Adam Abdelmoula, has warned that failing to provide adequate support now will have long-term consequences. “The cost of inaction […] is much more expensive than responding to the immediate needs of the Syrian people,” Abdelmoula stated.

Fresh Violence Threatens Stability

Although the removal of Assad initially brought relative stability, recent clashes between his loyalists from the Alawite minority and government security forces have reignited violence across Syria. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported over 1,000 deaths during intense fighting earlier this month, one of the deadliest incidents in the country’s recent history. The renewed hostilities have displaced thousands of people once again, complicating aid delivery and deepening the humanitarian crisis. The wounds of Syria’s civil war remain open, and while many hope for a brighter future, the risk of continued instability looms large.

A Fragile Political Landscape

The new interim government, led by President Ahmad al-Sharaa, has made efforts to establish order. A recent deal was struck with the Kurdish-led authority in the northeast, and a temporary constitution has been signed, leaving Syria under Islamist rule for the next five years while promising to protect the rights of all Syrians. However, concerns persist about the inclusivity and long-term viability of this transitional phase. The country is still deeply divided, and the success of this government will depend on its ability to balance power among Syria’s numerous ethnic and political factions.

The Global Call for Support

At a recent donor conference in Brussels, UN High Commissioner for Refugees Filippo Grandi made an urgent plea for international aid, emphasizing the necessity of shelter, electricity, water, education, and employment for returning Syrians. “If we fail to help them stay in Syria, make no mistake: the impact will be disastrous. Not only will returns stop, but those who did return (and probably many others) will move again,” Grandi warned. The international community faces a critical decision — either provide the necessary support to rebuild Syria or risk another wave of mass displacement, further destabilizing the region. The future of Syria hangs in the balance, and the world must decide how much it is willing to invest in peace.