Turkey-Syria Relations: The Elusive Path to Reconciliation

The long-standing tensions between Syria and Turkey have been a focal point of Middle Eastern geopolitics since the outbreak of the Syrian civil war in 2011. The conflict, which saw Turkey severing diplomatic ties with Syria and backing the Syrian opposition, has left a deep rift between the two nations. Despite recent efforts to bridge this divide, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has expressed skepticism about the success of these initiatives, citing a lack of tangible results.

In a speech to the Syrian parliament, al-Assad addressed the ongoing attempts to mend ties with Turkey, noting that despite the seriousness and genuine keenness of mediators like Russia, Iran, and Iraq, the efforts have not yielded any noteworthy outcomes. “The initiatives did not yield any results worth mentioning,” al-Assad remarked, underscoring the challenges that continue to impede progress in restoring relations between the two countries.

The Syrian civil war, which has ravaged the country for over a decade, saw Turkey emerge as a staunch supporter of the anti-Assad Syrian opposition. This support led to the severance of diplomatic ties between Ankara and Damascus, with Turkey providing a base for military and political figures opposing al-Assad. The Syrian president and his regime have faced widespread accusations of committing war crimes, leading millions of Syrian civilians to flee the country.

Al-Assad emphasized that the restoration of relations between Syria and Turkey would require a willingness to address the root causes of the conflict. “The solution is openness,” he stated. “Restoring a relationship requires first removing the causes that led to its destruction.” However, he made it clear that while he seeks the withdrawal of Turkish troops from Syrian territory, this was not a precondition for engaging in talks.

Recent statements by some Turkish officials suggested that Syria had set the withdrawal of Turkish troops as a condition for dialogue. Al-Assad firmly refuted these claims, describing them as “far from reality.” He stressed that Syria’s willingness to engage in talks was not contingent upon the withdrawal of Turkish forces.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has been a fervent advocate for the anti-Assad opposition, indicated in July that he would extend an invitation to al-Assad for possible talks to restore relations. Al-Assad responded cautiously, stating that while he was open to a meeting, the content of the discussions would be crucial. Turkey’s military presence in Syria remains a significant point of contention in these discussions.

Russia, a key ally of al-Assad, has been actively working to facilitate a meeting between the Syrian and Turkish leaders. Iraq has also expressed interest in playing a role in bringing the two leaders together. However, despite these diplomatic efforts, there has been little concrete progress toward reconciliation.

Turkey’s involvement in the Syrian conflict has been multifaceted, with the country playing a crucial role in supporting the Syrian opposition both politically and militarily. Ankara’s primary security concern in the region is the presence of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and its affiliates in northern Syria. The PKK, which has waged a decades-long insurgency against the Turkish state, is considered a terrorist organization by Turkey, the United States, and the European Union.

In an interview with Al Jazeera, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan reaffirmed Turkey’s commitment to normalization and peace in the region. However, he emphasized that this policy did not mean abandoning the Syrian opposition. Fidan acknowledged the sacrifices made by opposition fighters who had fought alongside Turkish troops and reiterated Turkey’s commitment to supporting them.

Within Turkey, the presence of 3.6 million registered Syrian refugees has become a significant political issue. While Erdogan has continued to support the principle of providing refuge to Syrians, the future of these refugees remains a contentious topic in Turkish politics. Some of Erdogan’s political opponents have promised to repatriate the refugees to Syria, further complicating the dynamics of Turkey-Syria relations.

As efforts to restore relations between Syria and Turkey continue, the path to reconciliation remains uncertain. The complex web of historical grievances, political alliances, and security concerns presents significant challenges to achieving meaningful progress. While both sides have expressed a willingness to engage in dialogue, the road to rapprochement will likely be long and fraught with obstacles.